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Exploiting: Had Him Where I Wanted 🕸
Island game, 5-handed, 200 bb effective.
It’s a lose short-handed game, where the two biggest stacks, Julio (our “Any 2 Card Guy”) and me, have an unforgivably high VPIP.
I straddle, Julio makes it 6bb for UTG, it’s folded to me, I look at pocket queens and make it 18 to go. I am never just calling here against a guy, who rarely folds to 3-bets and loves to play big pots with me. My opponent very quickly calls, so I exclude AA or KK: these hands would at least take a few seconds to consider 4-betting.
Flop comes J♠️8♥️9♦️
Our ranges are so wide here, that both could easily have straights, sets, two pairs, overpairs (at least, in my case), underpairs, gustshots etc
I could bet for protection and value versus a jack, a nine or pocket tens but against a lose opponent, who takes lots of stabs, the best play here is to check, keep the pot smaller, make my hand look weaker and allow him to take the initiative with most of his range (instead of letting him put me in a tough spot by occasionally raising me with all sorts of things).
So I check, Julio bets 20 bb and I call. Raising would make little sense, because he would call with the hands that have me crushed, fold the worst hands or go all in with anything and make me hate my life.
Turn is a 3♥️, changes nothing, and I check here for the same reasons that I did it on the flop for.
Julio fires 40 bb and I call.
River is an 8♣️, and it’s a great card for me.
If Julio has J 9, his top two have been counterfeited.
If he had me on the flop with a set or J-8 or 8-9 or a straight, he still has me. I block a few most likely straights, having two queens myself, and it’s hard to put him on 10-7, given the preflop action (as much as Julio is capable of having any ridiculous hand here).
I don’t expect him to have bare trips too often, unless it is exactly 8-10. Hands like A-8, 8-7 would be more likely to check back on the turn and reevaluate on the river (maybe try to make a wild hero call if the board bricks and I stab).
I excluded AA or KK earlier, so there is every reason to think that if Julio bets, he has a boat, pocket tens, or nothing. If he bets on the smaller side, that might be A-J or K-J.
Against such a lose opponent, I will check to induce here all day - and sometimes will be taken to the valuetown on a boat, which an inevitable variance that comes from playing against the Any-2-Card guys.
It goes check-80bb bet-instacall-instamuck.
“I thought you had a Queen too, but I didn’t think you have two”.
I got him to triple barrel me with a gutshot, while had I been betting, Julio would simply fold the river, if not the turn.
CONCLUSION
In the same exact spot a hand, that is an instafold versus one guy, is an instafold versus another guy.
In the same exact spot a hand, that is a bet-for-value versus one guy, is an check-to-induce versus another guy.
It’s the job of the maniac to valuebet himself, so give him a rope and let him go for three streets of value.