Post-Bluff Confessions: Fancy With Gutshot 🤹🏼♀️
I will be making a coming out every time I play such a hand, because it is bad. Here we go:
Same game, where everybody knows everybody else’s strategy good enough (but still does ridiculous things versus one another).
6-handed, UTG raises 2,5 bb, Alan the Villain calls, I call on the BU with 6♣️7♦️. I know. I know what you are thinking, ok?
Julio, a LAG, who has been running hot and has the whole table covered, makes it 10bb from the big blind. It’s folded to me, I have faith in myself, position and developing sickness from Julio’s raises, so I call. I know. I know, what you are thinking, ok?
The flop comes J ♥️ 3♦️2 ♣️ and somehow Julio checks.
And somehow I do not think over his check on the flop properly.
Firstly, as much as Julio is capable of squeezing with something totally funny, most of the time he does it against two or three people out of position and not even from his straddle, he does have a hand. He did not three-bet just me (that would be clearly any two card range), should have kept that in mind.
Secondly, this is a good board to C-bet. Julio C-bets at least 90% of the time, even when he misses the boards which are terrible for C-betting. So how on earth does he check here?
He would have bet with every air, every overpair, any pocket pair like 99 or 10 10, that makes a second pair now. It’s really hard to put him on on 3 3 or 2 2, but he would likely bet that too, hoping I have a jack or a midpocket pair myself. He would bet if he paired a Jack 100% of the time. Would he check AQ or AK? Not necessarily, but possibly. If he had a gutshot with A 4 or A 5 he would have bet for sure.
The turn is a 5♥️ and somehow Julio bets 10bb, less than half the pot. This card should not have helped him much, unless he has A♥️X♥️. If I know he is always C-betting a gutshot on the flop, I am positive he does not have a straight or a pair of fives now.
Sadly, I called a squeeze with 67 offsuit and don’t really beat Ace-high, so decide to raise the turn with a gutshot and try to take the pot down on the river unless the river is a heart, Ace, King or Queen (which is a lot of cards!).
I make it 30 bb and Julio quickly enough calls.
The river comes a meaningless 8♣️, a great card to stick to my plan.
Julio checks to me. I bet 40bb, enough to get AQ or AK to fold. Julio says: If you have a straight, you have a straight... and snaps me off with a set of jacks.
My biggest mistake was calling a raise and then a squeeze preflop with 6 7 offsuit, even on the button, even versus Julio.
My second mistake was not thinking too much about his check on the flop. I mean, how often does he squeeze preflop and then not C-bet versus one person? The only hands with which he would have done that with, would be exactly sets and maybe AQ/AK that did not hit a pair. I think, they call it a capped range: either an absolute monster or a complete air. And I hate that I did not look at my opponent properly to try and get a live read to determine which one of the two he has.
My turn raise was questionable. Julio was never folding a nut flush draw with two overs, that I put him on, so I might as well have floated the turn to bluff the river. He would have folded to a river bet or raise if he missed anyway.
My logic was, that with Julio’s paranoia it’s better to start telling the story earlier, than to bump it on the river out of the blue. Well, It worked in a way. He gave me so much credit for being able to have a straight here, that he did not get all the money in with a top set. While I might have had a lower set myself - and play it exactly in the same way.
I did have one six, which made a 4-6 straight less likely, but the blocker was irrelevant because I would never be able to put Julio on that hand anyway. I had a gutshot, and even that was more important.
My postflop play would have made sense if Julio really had a flush draw, but I really really should have tried to get a read and I was not even looking!
Julio’s check on the flop is worth talking about. It seems good and it worked well because he caught one crazy fox. Yet, given his aggressive style, a thinking opponent (which wasn’t me in that hand) might have smelled a trap.
Plus, assuming Julio’s squeeze should have been called with some kind of decent hand by the player on the button (which wasn’t the case with me on the button), his small c-bet would have got called by all the pocket pairs and even AQ/AK would float, so betting would keep his range wider. With his table image, Julio checking looks way more suspicious than Julio betting.
CONCLUSION/NOTE TO SELF
Calling a raise with a stubborn plan is a bad idea.
If you wanna bluff, put your opponent on a range first and get a live read on whether he is actually weak enough to fold - or decide to bluff at any moment when you pick up the weakness tell.
Don’t just live in a fantasy world with your blocker and a gutshot.