Crying Calls Mindset 😭☎️
This is a hand in a crazy game, where the two somewhat normal people, who know each other well, are playing a standard hand, and they know they are doing it and one of them still makes a mistake against another.
Island game, 6-handed, 110 bb effective
The Main Villain Alan opens 3x UTG, Herman calls on the button, I wake up with A♦️K♣️ on the big blind and make it 16bb to take the initiative and hopefully play with Alan heads-up. As I planned, Alan calls and Herman folds.
If you are me, it is a terrible spot for a light squeeze against these guys (some people in our game still do that and reload two minutes later).
Alan has a decent UTG opening range and a willingness to play pots with me. Most of his hands would call, AA and KK included (Which is a suicide in our game, when you have people left to act behind, you end up sandwiched thee ways in all sorts of tough spots, but people seem to be reluctant to 4-bet). Herman might join the party with suited connectors or a pocket pair any time.
I am certain to get called by a good hand and very likely to get called by a random hand on the button as well and will have to continue bluffing my stack off against two guys out of position. So I am not gonna have a lot of funny hands here and when Alan calls my raise he has to be aware of that.
From my prospective, he is not hard to play against, after he called a big preflop squeeze, because of his very defined range and what he might do with it. He has any pocket pair or AJ++.
Flop comes K❤️J♣️5♣️ and I bet 16bb.
Alan calls. From what I know, he would flat here in a heads up 3-bet pot with most of his hands, including AA, sets, draws. He would have folded the small pockets like 99 and lower.
I am betting here vs Alan with all my sets, all my kings, sometimes bet sometimes check AJ and QQ or a draw. If somehow I made a funny preflop squeeze, I would C-bet or check-raise or, based on Alan’s behavior, check-fold (it’s quite detectable, when he flops huge, because he stops moving/talking/breathing).
Turn is a Q♦️
I think checking here is better than betting, but both are fine. Alan should not have two pairs too much (he is not really calling 3-bets, especially from me, with KJ/KQ/JQ), straights either (I don’t see him raise UTG and call a 3-bet with A10 or 10-9 often).
He either has AJ, A♣️Q♣️, A❤️Q❤️, a set, sometimes 10 10. I am good most of the time, but will not get three streets of value from worse hands.
If Alan checks back, I will be positive that I have the best hand, and jacks, queens and clubs might change that on the river.
If Alan bets, I will call but might check-fold the river, because he should not have many bluffs if he fires twice.
Alan checks back, so it’s clearly a hand that has medium showdown value, like AJ or AQ.
River is a K♦️
I am surely good and will go for value (if he raises, that will look bluffy, he’d not check back two pair, set or a straight on the turn, so I would probably call quick enough).
I bet 40bb into 68bb, a size that is designed to get called by a Queen or even a Jack. Alan says that it is probably a bad call, and makes a bad call with A❤️Q❤️.
I should have been squeezing preflop with something entirely foxy, like 9♦️8♦️ to have a complete air on the river, or turn 10 10 into a bluff. If I had air, it would be the most hopeless bluff of all time to check the turn, then bet just half of the pot. I would either go for checks-raises, three barrels or at least make an overbet on the last street to give him a headache.
A float with A❤️Q❤️ on the flop in position is fine (I told him it’s moronic but I take my words back). Alan might have stacked me if a backdoor ❤️ flush hit, got at least one bet out of me with a ten, bluff on a club or just take a stab if I check on a blank turn. Problem with hitting an ace or a Queen is exactly what happened - it’s too often not good enough facing further action. His only play was to check it back.
On the river Alan got trapped into a mindset that if he called the flop and he hit something, hand kind of looks good, the price too, the opponent checked the turn, “he has to call”. He didn’t even take his time to figure out that I checked for pot control, made an obvious valuebet with at least AA and don’t have enough bluffs here given the preflop action. Just another spot where you make money by folding, because my AA/AK and his AQ/AJ are pretty much face up.
CONCLUSION
Just because you called, you never “have to” blindly call again if the board texture does not change dramatically. I think this mindset little by little can coast you a lot of money, as well as not taking your time to re-evaluate. You have to look at your opponent, how much he bets and how he does it and try to figure out what he was trying to accomplish on every street. Sometimes you fold a good hand because they convinced you
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