Manila Postflop: Donkbet Kingdom and Ace-REGS 🐐
While anyone leading with anything might be a reasonable consequence of a multi-limped pot, Manila smallest live stakes have little notion of checking to the preflop aggressor either.
The logic is simple: when you have a top pair you are supposed to bet out (and put your hand face up). If the second pair is still second on the turn, they will lead it if the flop was checked through. You will see the brightside and even nitty regs leading into the raiser with a top pair on a low board.
There are players that I label as ace-regs. They seem to think poker is about playing any ace and leading as soon as they hit it. Guess what, some fish will still call, thinking sometimes the ace-regs don’t have the bloody ace. Every time I see that I am barely holding myself from rolling my eyes. They always have it.
Don’t be intimidated into thinking a lot of players have read the Supersystem and are firing after flopping the world. Because if they flop the world, they should, of course, check-raise.
There is one type of a guy, who does know how to check to the raiser and leads when he flops a monster. Make sure you spot this pattern to be able get away from your top pair when the flop lead happens.. well, at least fold on the turn.
EXAMPLE:
Hand 1:
The board reads A♦️5♦️6♦️ and I have the nuts with K♦️3♦️ on the button in a multi-way limped pot.
The small blind, a funky looking big old man, an always-has-it type of a solid player leads. I am the only caller.
The turn is blank, he fires again and I call.
The river is blank, he fires, I raise and he folds after 10 seconds, saying: “Ok, so my two pair are no good”.
Hand 2:
I open A♠️K♠️ from MP, HJ calls, old man calls from the BB
Flop comes K♦️9♥️7♥️, the old man leads for about 80% of the pot and I hate my life. It’s either KQ (and might be with the two hearts as well) or I am fucked. I have to call one bet here. Lucky for me the button raises and the old man reraises all-in.
Easy fold now.
The old man has a set of nines, the button shows 10♥️8♥️ for a straight-flush draw.
You will rarely see reraising or check-raising on the flop or later streets, so facing that you should find lots of tight and instant folds.
It’s almost never a bluff or a draw, especially coming from a nicely dressed guy with a reg demeanor. Like I said before, people who are making money by playing poker in Philippines do not do that by getting fancy with a gutshot.
Good regs on a big stack would mostly flat with a straight-flush draw. If they raise your bet on the flop, bottom of their range is an overpair. If they raise you on an A-high flop and you do have an ace with a good kicker, fucking fold the exact hand they hope you have.
Bad regs are generally jamming or folding their short stack with a draw. Easy call with TPTK, but won’t always end well.
Example:
I squeeze over the limpers from the CO, remain heads-up with a reg on the HJ, both of us with big stacks.
I’ve got A♥️Q♥️ and the flop comes
A♦️5♣️6♣️
I c-bet approx 60% of the pot and get raised.
I almost insta-fold and show my hand.
He says ”Good fold” and turns over A♣️5♠️.
Note: I would never lay this down against some guys that I know (Hello, Tony). Maybe not even on a blank turn. But against a reg you don’t know, the default play is to let you one pair hand go when facing a flop raise. Once in a blue moon it can be a bluff so once in a blue moon they will have you if you fold. Rest of the time they will have you crushed if you call.
Little tip: when you show, they tend to show it too. I used it a lot during my first test-drive trip just to understand how people play. They were also curious to see what I do, so we kept in friendly.
Another example:
I squeeze over the limpers from the CO, get heads-up with a fish sitting on 20-smth bb.
I’ve got A♥️Q♥️ and the flop comes
Q♠️ 4♠️ 8♦️
I c-bet approx 60% of the pot, get raised all-in an snap call.
He shows K♠️4♠️. I hold and take down another pot from him.
GOOFBALLS
There will be some plays that look silly because they are silly.
The rule of thumb is: if the play doesn’t seem to make sense, it probably doesn’t.
GOOD OLD MIN DONK BET
Raise with any 2. Apparently he flopped a backdoor.
STAB
They don’t usually stab because they’ve got position. They stab because they have above average stack, are good enough to know they can make such a play and it might even work on a meaningless turn against several opponents who checked the flop. Guys on shorter stacks do not venture a stab too often.
So it’s usually a turn stab with a river follow-up. Let them valuebet themselves.
Example:
We are on the CO with 9 8s in a four-way raised pot and a bluffy reg to act behind on the BU.
Flop comes 3 8 K rainbow and is checked through. Ok, we get it, no one with a king.
The turn comes another 8, early position boys check and we check waiting for a bluffy one to do his thing. He bets and we flat. The river is a three and we check our boat, knowing that the bluffy boy has fuck-all and the only way we can get more money into this pot is to give him a rope. We check, he bets again, we don’t even bother raising. He shows K-high for fuck-all.
“I waited for you,” says the fox 🦊
WHAT ELSE?
Floating with missed AK after a bet and a call is considered a must in Manila books, whoever in the hell wrote them.
They don’t normally bluff the scary cards because they are scared of them too.
Yet betting the scary turn when they hit it is mandatory. When you hit the turn, you bet the turn.
Nobody thinks in terms of ranges.
Whoever is able to be concerned about the kicker is already on a bright side.
DO NOT BE RESULTS ORIENTED IN ONE PARTICULAR SESH
Once in a blue moon they won’t be having a hand they are supposed to have by the way it played out. And if once in a blue moon they have you, whatever. Just make sure you are bankrolled for some once-in-a-blue-moon whatevers.